The Review of Paediatric and Congenital Cardiac Services predicts that the demand for services for children born with congenital heart disease will increase very slightly over the next 10-15 years. Forecasts of a slight increase in the birth rate will mean a increase in the number of babies born with congenital heart disease of around 5% by 2018.

In contrast to relatively stable demand for paediatric services, a number of studies indicate there will be a significant increase in the demand for grown-up congenital heart disease services in future years. These increases reflect the substantial and continuing improvements in childhood survival rates over the last two decades.

The Review of Paediatric and Congenital Cardiac Services follows the approach of the British Cardiac Society Working Party on grown-up congenital heart disease which predicted there will be a 50% increase in the number of adults with complex congenital heart disease between 2000 and 2010 (an increase of around 5,600 adults). As a proportion of these adults will require further surgery, and all will require long-term medical care, the Review estimates an increase in consultant congenital cardiologist and surgeon capacity of around 25% (approximately 20 cardiologists and 2-3 surgeons) is required.

Data from an alternative analysis by cardiologists based at the Freeman Hospital in Newcastle, suggest the Department of Health figures may underestimate the potential growth in demand for GUCH services in the UK. Based on observed cases, predicted survivors and the predicted need for follow-up in a broad range of specific congenital heart disease conditions, this study predicts that there will be just over 1,600 extra adults each year (or 16,000 between 2000 and 2010) requiring the follow-up care of a specialised GUCH clinic.